Trump’s Epstein strategy could pit him against loyal supporters

As Donald Trump continues to be dogged by questions about his administration’s handling of possible files related to deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, he is relying on a tried and true strategy.

The problem for the president, however, is that his plan of attack may inadvertently pit him against some of his most loyal supporters.

In a lengthy Truth Social post on Wednesday morning, Trump began in a familiar way – by blaming the Epstein controversy on “radical left Democrats”. This episode, he said, is just the latest in a long line of “hoaxes” fabricated by his political opponents to bring him down.

“These Scams and Hoaxes are all the Democrats are good at,” he wrote. “They are no good at governing, no good at policy, and no good at picking winning candidates.”

In the past, Trump has used this kind of us-against-them rhetoric to rally his supporters to his side – casting himself as the embattled champion of the outsiders and disaffected who faces off against the privileged and the wealthy.

The potential flaw in the president’s strategy this time became apparent halfway through his post, however, as he turned to blame his own party and his own supporters for falling for what he said was a leftist scheme.

“My PAST supporters have bought into this ‘bullshit,’ hook, line, and sinker,” he wrote. “They haven’t learned their lesson, and probably never will.”

During remarks later in the Oval Office, Trump continued to blame his own side, saying that “some stupid Republicans, some foolish Republicans, have fallen into the net”.

The president is drawing battle lines on the Epstein issue that divides his own side. It also risks cutting through the foundations on which his political strength is built.

Trump’s success has been powered by two central messages to his supporters – that he’s an outsider who fights against a corrupt establishment and that he tells it like it is. At a time when many voters say they are tired of polished politicians with shifting views, Trump’s base sees him as authentic – unvarnished and controversial, yes, but honest.

Trump, never one to shy away from wild conspiracy theories or those who embrace them, now finds himself arguing that there is no “credible” evidence implicating the rich and powerful in the Epstein case and that those believing otherwise are suckers or fools.

His shifting comments – that the Epstein files should be released, that there are no files, that any possible files are hoaxes – also make him seem less like a straight-shooter and more like a man with something to hide.

He’s left with the problem of trying to prove a negative. And for the moment, some of his supporters aren’t buying it.

In an interview with Politico, conservative firebrand Laura Loomer warned that if Trump did not change course, the Epstein story could “consume” his presidency. Her advice to appoint an independent investigator to handle the case is one Trump would be loath to follow, given how he has railed against past special counsels.

But the success of his strategy to blame political opponents may only work if Democrats take the bait.

Dan Pfeiffier, who worked as a senior adviser to President Barack Obama, recently wrote they can avoid this trap by amplifying divisions in Trump’s “Make America Great Again” ranks.

“If the issue becomes too associated with a Democratic effort to hurt Trump, it will polarise the issue along party lines and push the dissatisfied Maga voters back into Trump’s camp,” he wrote in his most recent newsletter.

For the moment, calls for the government to share more information about Epstein is a rare source of consensus among the American public. A YouGov poll indicated that 79% of Americans want the government to release “all documents it has”. That included 75% of Republican respondents and 85% of Democrats.

An internal Democratic poll obtained by Politico found 58% of respondents believed Trump “maybe was or definitely was” involved in a cover-up.

If the polls are decidedly tilted against Trump, Republican officeholders – the men and women who owe their professional livelihoods to staying in the president’s good graces – mostly continue to stick by his side.

Congressional Republicans are backing the president’s legislative agenda despite their narrow majorities in key votes this week. And while some have called for more transparency, conservatives in the House of Representatives have repeatedly squelched Democratic attempts to mandate the release of all remaining Epstein files.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, who oversaw those efforts, walked back earlier comments calling for more Epstein files to be disclosed, saying that he was misquoted and that he only wanted the public to see “credible” information – the same language Trump has used.

For the moment, the Epstein story is a frustrating distraction for a president used to bending the news cycle, and national attention, to his will. With Republicans in control of Washington, the controversy will only consume his presidency if Trump’s own allies allow it to.

If the grumbling and disaffection in Trump’s faithful persist, however, it could exact a high toll on the Republican party in next year’s midterm congressional elections, when voter enthusiasm typically determines which party prevails.

And if Democrats wrest control of one or both chambers of Congress – and gain their accompanying investigatory powers – the Epstein files, and Trump’s connection to them, could go from a political sideshow to centre-ring spectacle.

Follow the twists and turns of Trump’s second term with North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher’s weekly US Politics Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.